Can unity moderate Hamas?
MIDDLE East expert Professor Elie Podeh believes it is too early to judge the nature of the reconstituted Palestinian Authority (PA) following the recent Fatah-Hamas unity agreement.
MIDDLE East expert Professor Elie Podeh believes it is too early to judge the nature of the reconstituted Palestinian Authority (PA) following the recent Fatah-Hamas unity agreement.
The Hebrew University scholar, who spoke to The AJN ahead of his appearance at Limmud-Oz next month, said it is impossible to predict whether the deal will radicalise the PA or moderate Hamas.
“I very much hope that [the agreement] means that Hamas is coming closer to Fatah [rather] than the other way around,” Prof Podeh said, “But we don’t know and we have to wait and see.”
Prof Podeh, who was part of an Israeli delegation that met with PA President Mahmoud Abbas on May 5 – the day after the unity deal was signed in Cairo – implied the Israeli Government has cast the deal in an unfairly harsh light as an excuse to avoid negotiations.
“[Abbas] was trying to [tell us] that this is an internal domestic issue that would not affect the negotiations in the future,” he said of the meeting.
“But we’ll have to see. We have to admit that we don’t know.”
According to Prof Podeh, the Israeli Government is unwilling to negotiate with either Hamas or Abbas.”
The chair of Middle East studies said he believed Israel’s reluctance to take the steps necessary to lure the Palestinians back to the negotiating table may come at a price.
This, he explained, is because the PA’s threat to turn to the United Nations for unilateral statehood recognition later this year is no bluff and potentially very damaging for Israel.
“It’s real,” he said of the statehood push. “I think that this is part of the reason why Hamas joined them. Because I think they realise that Fatah is going to win, or get a certain victory at the UN, and they want to jump on the bandwagon.”
He said the Palestinians are insisting that Israel is forcing their hand. “[Abbas says,] ‘we are willing, in fact we prefer, to discuss and at arrive to an agreement with the Israelis. But if they are not willing to discuss, then we will move to the UN.’ So that will probably happen.”
That said, the professor said he believes the effects of the UN vote will probably fall short of Palestinian expectations.
“I don’t think that there will be much change on the ground,” he predicted. “But in general, and diplomatically, Israel obviously will be more isolated.”
He said that he is looking forward to speaking at Limmud-Oz about the unrest sweeping the Middle East in recent months.
On Syria, which has been the latest flashpoint of anti-government violence, Prof Podeh said he believed the writing was on the wall for the regime of President Bashar Assad.
“It seems that in the long run [Assad’s government] will not survive,” the scholar surmised.
However, he said due to the fact that the minority Alawite regime is fighting for its very survival, it would probably be a long, bloody fight. “How long will it take? We have no idea,” he said.
The question of what would replace Assad’s regime is a tricky one. Giving the example of Egypt’s well-organised Muslim Brotherhood, Prof Podeh said Syria has no such natural opposition group.
However, as 70 per cent of Syria is Sunni, he believed the next regime would probably emanate from that group.
“The options are many, and we can’t really predict which one will prevail,” he said.
Professor Elie Podeh will appear at Limmud-Oz, June 11-13 in Sydney.
Enquiries:www.limmud-oz.com.au.
AHRON SHAPIRO
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